Heavy Rain & Severe Weather on Saturday

I'm on vacation right now, but since I'm a weather geek... I'm still looking at the weather. There is a chance of severe weather and flooding rains on Saturday. Here are the bullet points as of Friday at 6:30 am:

• Heavy rain and flooding is greatest threat.
• 2-4" of rainfall will likely fall, with the chance of higher amounts in some spots.
• There is a chance of severe weather during the daytime hours on Saturday.
• Straight line winds are the greatest threat, but a tornado can not be ruled out.

Let's first take a look at the projected rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center. After looking at the data this morning, this is right in line with my thinking. If anything, the heavier rain may extend more into Arkansas than the WPC suggests. The orange areas indicate over FOUR INCHES of rain:

In addition to the chance of heavy rain, there is a chance of severe weather. The surface low pressure is going to go right across us through the day. The most unstable air is typically southeast of the track of the low, on the "warm side" of the storm. Notice the position of the low Saturday morning and where the "storm energy" is located. This does not guarantee that we will see severe weather, but that there is some available energy:

As we go through the day, the low moves through and the cold front pushes south. As that happens, colder and more stable air moves into Region 8 and our severe weather threat goes down Saturday night, BUT heavy rain will continue:

If you look at the Top 8 historical events in this setup, there is a higher risk of severe weather farther south into the more unstable air, but there is also an area near the surface low that must be watched closely:

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of Region 8 as a "slight" risk and an area of our southern viewing area as a "moderate" risk:

As I mentioned, I'm on vacation. Bryan McCormick will be filling in for me tonight and will have an in depth look at the threats. Also, Justin Logan will have an update on our Midday show at 11:00 am.

Tomorrow, all of us will be on call. Hopefully, there will not be any severe weather!

Ryan