Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Severe Weather Possible on Thursday

It has been awhile since we have had severe weather. While this does not appear to be a major severe weather outbreak, we need everyone prepared. Make sure your weather radios are on Thursday and make sure your family knows what to do in case a tornado warning is issued for your area.
Let's dig into the details. There is a chance of severe weather on Thursday. Right now, we are thinking the greatest threat will be from central Missouri to Western Arkansas to NE Texas. That's where we are highlighting a "Medium" risk of severe for Thursday PM. The areas in yellow have a low risk of severe weather, but that may change as we move closer to Thursday.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of the area in a "slight" risk for severe weather. As I mentioned earlier this year, at KAIT, we are trying to convey the risks a little better with a "Low, Medium, High, and Extreme" risk. We feel it is easier to understand than the categories from the SPC and it allows us to adjust where we think the greatest risks will be located. The SPC does a great job and we will still use them for guidance, but we are trying to make the threats easier to understand for everyone.

With that said, let's take a look at what radar may look like on Thursday afternoon:
By late in the afternoon, as you see in the above image, we should have showers and storms from SW Missouri, through SE Oklahoma, into Texas. Here in Region 8, we expect some sunshine and very warm temperatures that will be making our atmosphere more unstable. By sunset, we will probably see some storms developing ahead of the main line in Region 8.
In above image, you can see the storms trying to develop ahead of the main batch of storms. These storms could be severe. Hail is possible and even a small chance of a tornado. We will be tracking the storms closely. Notice, the storms in western Arkansas are stronger at this point, with heavy rain.
Between 10pm-2am, the main line of storms will move through Region 8. As the line passes through, we expect:

  • Heavy rain
  • Lots of lightning
  • Gusty Winds
  • A chance of hail
  • Isolated tornado possible

Stay tuned,

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