Wednesday, October 01, 2014

Severe Weather Update

Like I have done in the past, let's start out with some bullet points:

  • Severe weather is possible late on Thursday into Friday morning.
  • Gusty winds appear to be the main threat.
  • Hail is possible.
  • Tornado threat is low, but still possible. Know your plan in case a warning is issued.
  • Most of the storms will come after sunset. Meaning, most of Thursday will be dry.
Let's talk about timing because a lot of you have football games, practice, the Boyer Mile, lawns to be mowed, swim practice, etc, etc... Remember, these images are model driven and the timing could change.

Around 7PM, a line of storms will be moving into the state, but still west of Region 8. We can not rule out some isolated storms ahead of the main line. If one of these storms impact your outdoor plans, it will not last long. These storms will probably be strong in NW Arkansas, with some severe thunderstorm warnings. We are hoping they weaken as they move East:
Three hours later, around 10PM, the line of storms will be moving into Region 8. If this data does not change, we will be tracking storms at the top of Region 8 News at 10:00. The storms will have likely prompted a watch (either Severe TS or Tornado) and there will probably be a few warnings in the state. Heavy rain and lightning is likely:
By 1AM, the kids and dogs will be climbing in bed with you because of the lightning, but I'm hoping nobody has to be in their Tornado safe spot. Typically with a squall line, the tornado threat is low. It's not impossible to have a tornado, it's just not as likely. Make sure you have a way to get the warnings in case a tornado warning is issued. Here's what the data shows for 1AM:
By 4AM, the storms have crossed the river and they are out of Region 8:
The weekend is looking AWESOME. The weather will be nice for Football Friday Night, tailgating the A-State game, and the game itself. Make some outdoor plans!

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter at @ryanvaughan ... I have frequent updates there.

Ryan

1 comment:

Steve Holsten said...

Ryan, they had a couple of calls around 2:00 from the Senath area with folks seeing funnel cloud looking formations east of there, but the Police Chief couldn't see them.