Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Snow This Weekend?

There have been a lot of rumors floating around about the the chance of snow this weekend, so let's talk about what we know with some bullet points:

  • Yes, we may see some snow falling this weekend.
  • At this time, LATE Saturday and Saturday night appears to be the best window of opportunity.
  • Ground temperatures will be around 40°.
  • Little, if any, accumulation is expected.
  • Roads should be fine.
  • Most of this should come after the A-State game. 
Let's dig into the data. I do not feel confident enough to show a accumulation map, at this time. We are still a few days out and we don't need to start a bread and milk panic. Generally speaking though, I'd be shocked to see more than a dusting (less than 0.50") anywhere in Region 8. My thoughts may change on this, but that's what I'm thinking. Here's what radar could look like on Saturday evening at 6:00 PM: 
This is the GFS model above (click to enlarge) and it shows the rain/snow line right through Region 8. The one thing that may help the snow to stick is that it appears to be coming in after sunset. This will help the snow stick to elevated surfaces, if this model is right and this precipitation materializes. Let's fast forward to midnight:
Notice, the 32° line is still right through the middle of Region 8. If this happened, some would be seeing light showers... while others would be seeing light snow.

It's still early and things can change, but right now, we may see some light snow on Saturday night. I would not change my plans yet, for the reasons I mentioned earlier, but I'd keep a close eye on the forecast.

Take care,

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