Sunday, November 16, 2014

Sunday Night SNOW

It looks like we are going to get some snow tonight. As always, let's simplify everything with some bullet points on my thoughts as of 7:30 am this morning (Sunday):

  • I expect the rain to change to snow this evening.
  • Some areas could see 1-2", with some isolated areas seeing 3".
  • I expect several schools to close tomorrow.
  • With Monday and Tuesday being at or below freezing, roads could stay slick in spots.
  • With it being an early storm, it's hard to know how the roads will respond.
  • I'll be on air with LIVE updates at 5:00 and 10:00 tonight, with Andrew Wilson.
Justin and I spoke this morning and adjusted the accumulation map based on our thoughts on the latest data. This may change this afternoon:
I think if anyone sees more than 2", it would be SEMO and possibly Clay or Greene counties. We'll adjust this map as needed, as new data arrives, and the storm unfolds. 

If you know me, you know I'm not a fan of winter. To get snow in November does not make me happy, but that's life! LOL As I mentioned earlier, the hard part about this forecast is how the roads will respond to the first snowfall of the season. I'm not a road expert. I have a pretty good idea about how much precipitation should fall and what the temperatures are going to do, but I'm still not a road expert. My gut feeling tells me that with snow falling at night and temperatures around 30°, the roads are going to get slick. It has been very cold over the past week and I think the snow will stick easily, ESPECIALLY on bridges and overpasses.

Also, I'm worried about how long the roads stay slick. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday may not go above freezing in many locations. This may leave roads slick in spots, especially shady areas. Can you imagine school being out for 3 days for 1-2"? It's happened before... Never say never.

I hope I am dead wrong. It would not hurt my feelings if it were all rain! It would not hurt my feelings if the roads stayed wet. Let's prepare for the worst and hope for the best. This might be good training for when Winter actually begins!

Here's a timeline. At 6PM, rain is changing to snow in places like Hardy, Melbourne, Mtn. View, etc:
At midnight, snow and sleet covering most of Region 8. Notice the heavier band setting up where we believe the highest snow amounts will be located. We will have to watch the storm unfold to see exactly where that bands sets up:
By 6AM, we are left with flurries or freezing drizzle:
I hope this helps! I'm heading to church, but will be at work by 2:00 PM. If anything changes, I will give another update. Also, follow me on twitter at @ryanvaughan and on Facebook at

1 comment:

Missy Mccutcheon said...

Yes i understand that we might get some snow and that the roads will be slick. they were even slick last night because of the sleet. me and my mom were sitting in the living room watching a movie when it started sleeting and about 5 min into the sleet me and my mom were shocked to hear someone's tires sliding outside of our house. so now i really do understand that the roads will be slick and anyone reading this really do be aware that the roads REALLY are slick