Thursday, February 19, 2015

Timing of the Ice on Friday

Region 8 has to be one of the trickiest places to forecast in the country. Once again, precipitation TYPE will be in question tomorrow (Friday). Here are my thoughts at 3:15 PM on Thursday:

  • This does not look to impact us as bad as last Sunday night.
  • MOST of the precipitation falls after lunch.
  • I expect spotty sleet and snow in Region 8 between 6:00-9:00 am on Friday
  • I expect to switch to Freezing Rain between 3:00-5:00 pm Friday afternoon.
  • We should switch to all rain between 10:00 pm - Midnight.
  • We expect 0.50" or less of snow and sleet AND up to 0.25" of Freezing Rain, which puts a glaze of ice on everything.
  • The Freezing Rain between 3:00 PM and Midnight will be the greatest threat.
  • Power outages are more likely than last Sunday night.
  • I stress this every time we get freezing rain... This will NOT be as bad as the 2009 Ice Storm. In fact, it will be nothing like the 2009 ice storm, but outages are still possible,
  • The MAIN reason for the NWS to issue a Winter Storm Warning is because of the chance of 0.25" of ice that may form on the trees and power lines. That is the minimal threshold to cause issues with electricity.
Here's the map of the watches, advisories, and warnings from the National Weather Service:

Have a great evening!

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