Friday, December 25, 2015

Flooding and Severe Storms Possible December 26-28

Merry Christmas everyone! I hope you are having a great day with family and friends. It's hard to believe that 3 years ago, we were preparing for a blizzard!

We will be keeping a close watch on Region 8 rivers over the next few days. Flash flooding is my main concern, but severe weather is also possible. Here are my thoughts on this Christmas morning:
  • Strong storms are possible on Saturday, but the worst weather will be southwest of Region 8.
  • Heaviest rain will occur from Sunday morning into Monday morning.
  • The highest rain totals will likely be in the NW parts of Region 8.
  • Severe storms are possible on Sunday and Monday morning, but the tornado threat is low.
  • 3-6" of rain is possible between now and Monday at lunch.
OK, let's look at some data! Models are not completely agreeing on rainfall amounts, but the general trend is the same. The heaviest rain should be in the northwestern parts of Region 8. Here are two models. This is the latest GFS, which does NOT show the rainfall areas SE of us had last night and this morning:
 This is the EURO data from last night that also includes this morning's rainfall:
With these high rainfall amounts, we will likely see some flooding in Region 8 rivers. The hydrologists at the NWS have released these river forecasts. Here is the Black River at Black Rock. Notice the peak on Monday:

Here's the Eleven Point River at Ravenden Springs:

Keep in mind, these river forecasts are dependent on rainfall amounts. We will watch this closely over the next few days!

Have a great Christmas! 

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