Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Snow On Thursday Into Friday, Or No?

We are less than 48 hours from being impacted by another winter storm. There are still some questions with this storm, but here are my thoughts at 10:30 AM on Wednesday:

  • Low pressure brings precipitation into the state tomorrow.
  • The precipitation may start as sleet, but should switch to rain.
  • Mixed precipitation is expected tomorrow night. If you have Thursday evening plans, please pay close attention to the weather.
  • The BIG QUESTION is where the heavy band of snow sets up Thursday night and Friday morning.
    • Some data suggests the heaviest band will be in Western TN.
    • Some data suggests extreme eastern parts of Arkansas and the MO Bootheel.
  • At this time, I think the heaviest band will be right along the Mississippi River.
  • Some parts of Region 8 will get almost nothing.
Let's dig into some maps. The Euro and NAM both have the heaviest band of snow in western TN. Do not pay much attention to the totals. I'm not fully buying into the algorithm this map uses. But, you can see where the Euro has the heaviest snow:

The GFS has consistently had the heaviest band in Arkansas, but may not be handling the track of the low well with the deepening trough. This would be the snowiest setup for Region 8 by Friday morning, but would still leave many counties with no snow:

In summary, I think we will have a much better grasp of this storm tonight. At this time, Region 8 counties of Dunklin, Pemiscot, Mississippi, Crittenden have the best chance of a good snowfall by Friday morning.  I'll do another blog post later and will have updates on Region 8 News at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00.


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