Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Sleet On Valentine's Day?

We are still a few days away, but there is a chance of some sleet late on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. There are still some questions to be answered, but we may see a brief taste of winter Sunday night. Here are my thoughts as of 8:45 AM on Wednesday, February 10th:

  • This does NOT look to be a big winter storm.
  • Sleet and Freezing Rain looks to be the main precipitation type.
  • Arrives late on Sunday.
  • Ends before sunrise on Monday.
  • Too early to nail down precipitation types for each area.
  • Too early to speculate on accumulations.
  • Highs in the 40s on Monday.
  • 50s and 60s next week.
Here's what some of the data is showing. Sunday afternoon, cold air is on place at the surface, but some warm air aloft will melt the snowflakes as they fall. Near the surface, they should refreeze. If not, they may freeze on contact. That's the difference between sleet and freezing rain. This forecast sounding for midnight on Sunday Night/Monday morning shows what the temperature may do as you go up with height. Notice the brief period of temperatures above freezing:
The result is an area of WINTRY MIX. Here's how this could shake out. Precipitation comes in on Sunday afternoon and evening:
The precipitation increases through the overnight as the warm air tries to move into Region 8... but probably not fast enough:

By sunrise on Monday, the precipitation will be gone:




As I said, I'm not overly concerned YET. This can change, so stay tuned. We will adjust and fine tune the forecast as it develops.

Ryan

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

very detailed,live in mountain home, ar. it is so hard to get good weather details here, it comes out of northwest mo.or northeast ar. kind of in the middle here.thanks ;

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