Sunday, May 08, 2016

Severe Weather On Monday

At KAIT, we have a simple scale to convey the severe weather threat: Low, Medium, High, and Extreme. Many times, it looks similar to the Storm Prediction Center, because they are a very useful agency to seek guidance on during severe weather forecasting. The category names are different than our outlook because we feel that the risk categories can be better communicated. I bring this up every so often because we occasionally have questions about the severe weather threat maps. Sometimes, we will have a "high risk" on our maps and in our forecasts when the SPC does not... and vice versa. You will rarely see extreme. We may have used it once or twice. Here's where we think the threats are tomorrow (Monday);

Let's dig into the details with bullet points:

  • The severe weather threat is higher west of Region 8.
  • The threat for Region 8 will be late in the day and tomorrow night.
  • Damaging winds appear to be the main threat.
  • Hail is possible.
  • Nighttime tornadoes are possible.
This does not appear to be a "shield" of heavy rain coming in tomorrow, so rainfall amounts will vary greatly. I think we will have tornado watches by tomorrow afternoon and evening for parts of Region 8. I think there will be 2-3 super-cells that we will be tracking tomorrow night which will bring the bulk of any warnings.

Here's StormCAST for this evening when the main threat is in Oklahoma and Kansas:

Tomorrow morning, we may have a few showers, but storms are unlikely:

By dinnertime tomorrow evening, storms move in:

And by the late evening, strong storms moving through:

We will track it closely! Don't panic, but prepare for a few disruptions to plans for some people tomorrow night.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Ryan, I am taking a group of my students, from Ozarka College to Costa Rica (for short-term study abroad); we leave tomorrow at 12:40, from Little Rock airport. Possible weather issues?