Wednesday, August 17, 2016

More Storms Coming, But Less Humid Soon!

The models were going back and forth on when the rain will move out this weekend, but we are starting to see a nice consistency in the models! The image above shows the expected rainfall from a few models. Notice the consistency in timing and amounts. Here are my thoughts on the next few days:

  • Showers and storms continue with the best chance, coverage, and intensity on Friday and Saturday.
  • The atmosphere will be more unstable than the past few days on Friday and Saturday, so lightning is likely. Strong storms are possible, too.
  • Models have been flip-flopping, but I'm growing more confident that the rain chances drop Sunday morning.
  • Less Humid air moves in late Sunday and will last through Tuesday.
  • Sunshine on Monday!
Now, let's dig a little deeper. The atmosphere right now is pretty stable. We have not had much lightning lately and the rain today is light. A product that we use to see how much "energy" is in the atmosphere to produce storms is CAPE. Here's the CAPE for today. Notice the lack of yellows and oranges.  :
Going into Friday and Saturday, the air is more unstable:
I do not expect widespread severe weather, but a few storms could be strong. After the weekend, MUCH nicer air moves into Region 8! Look at the drop in dewpoints early next week:
Stay tuned for any changes over the next few days. I think we are going to like the weather early next week!


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