Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Even Here In Region 8... We Watch The Tropics

There is a disturbance just east of the Lesser Antilles that needs to be watched. Admittedly, it's almost impossible to know the outcome of it's existence and it does not even have a name, yet. However, the technology is available to at least make us aware of something we need to watch for next week. The European model is already suggesting that this disturbance will be named soon.The above image is several models plotted on one map. We call it a spaghetti plot. I'm sure you can see why... But, notice the general trend to take it into the Gulf of Mexico. The Euro model started showing this setup and now the GFS is on board.

I was not overly concerned when I saw this trend (and I'm still not, really), but even here in Region 8, we have to watch the tropics. As we learned with Hurricane Ike, the tropics can greatly impact our harvest season, especially for rice. While we are several days out from this impacting any part of the United States, I do want us to be aware that we need to watch it closely. This is only one model run of the GFS and it's 7-10 days out, but it has this thing coming in as a tropical storm and bringing us 20-30 mph winds and rain. It's way out there, but let's not ignore it either....

Stay tuned and we will keep you updated.


No comments: