Saturday, April 29, 2017

When Will It Rain and How Much?

Outside of a few isolated showers, Region 8 stayed mostly dry last night. The model above (GFS) showed 2-4" of rain for Region 8... which that simply did not happen.

We knew this was a possibility because some data suggested that we would stay capped, with the heaviest rain being north of Region 8. That's exactly what happened:
 So, maybe this model (NAM) is going to handle this entire weekend forecast better. I sure hope so because it only gives us 1-2" of rainfall:
Now, could we still see 3-4" of rain under areas that see stronger storms?... YEAH! Don't let your guard down. The higher resolution WRF shows that isolated streaks of 3-4" of rainfall will be possible, but it does not look widespread until you get into Missouri:

Even if we do not have 5" of rain area-wide, we are still going to have river flooding because of all of the rainfall in Missouri. We will be watching river levels closely for you!

To summarize:

  • The rain increases late today.
  • Most areas will likely see 1-2" of rainfall.
  • I think the flash flooding risk is low.
  • Isolated areas will see 3-4" in stronger storms.
  • Severe weather is possible with hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
  • Rivers will flood. 

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