Sunday, February 12, 2012

Snow Tomorrow, 2/13/12

We're still set to have wintry weather on Monday (tomorrow). The storm has changed a little in the past few days, but it still looks like it could get a little slick by Monday evening. Here's the tricky part... How much? Take a look at this graph that shows the models and their different runs on accumulation:
So, of course we can't go on air and say that we'll see anywhere from 0-5" of snow. Viewers would not be that happy with a forecast that vague, even though we all love the vagueness of the Farmer's Almanac... but I digress. So, we have to look at several parameters to come up with the forecast. Looking at amount of precip, forecast track, and snow ratios... I'm thinking 1-3" for Jonesboro area... with a little more in the Ozarks. It's not a lot, but enough to cause some problems. don't just look at the top end of that number. Many areas may get closer to 1". Temperatures will be crucial as well. Of course, the models are a little spread on the temps as well:
If we stay near or below freezing, we will have more problems of course. One thing is for sure though, we're going to be warming over the next few days. This storm will be short-lived.

Despite the Winter Storm Watch we have across Region 8 now, I'd be shocked to see a Winter Storm Warming. I'm thinking we will have a Winter Weather Advisory... and if this start looking a little more juicy, we may see a warning. Stay tuned!


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