Monday, February 13, 2012

Winter Weather Today (2/13/12)

I just got home from the Memphis Grizzlies game and I'm quickly looking at some data before I go to bed. Just for fun, let me show you the "snowiest" model and model run. This is the evening run of the NAM model. It shows the snow coming in shortly after lunch in Jonesboro. Of course, areas SW of Jonesboro would see it earlier. I'm not sold on this part of the model. I really think Jonesboro could start seeing flakes as early as 10AM if the atmosphere can moisten up fast. Time will tell.

Next, this model is showing 4" of snow. While that is possible, my 1-3" forecast is still the safe bet. Many areas may be closer to the 1", so when you look at that range... don't always look at the top number! 1" of snow in this area still causes issues though. ALSO, if we get some sleet mixing in (which I expect), it would lower the numbers

Last, this model still shows it ending as rain.That might happen, but if this cold air does not budge at the surface.. that would be freezing drizzle. That will need to be watched as well.

That's the quick and dirty forecast. Watch Sarah in the AM and I'll be updating Twitter through the day at @ryanvaughan

Note: I wish I could answer every question that you guys have for each particular town and time, but that' almost impossible. I hope you understand!

Be safe!

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