Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Spring Snow Possible

Winter Storm Watches have been issued for parts of Region 8, so I figured we need to chat about this possible Winter Storm on the blog. As always, let me lay out some bullet points for this storm to answer most questions:
  • The snow threat is for late Thursday and Thursday Night.
  • This storm has a high chance of "busting" (being forecast wrongly)
  • The highest snow totals will be in the Ozarks.
  • Roads may not get too bad due to recent warm days and temperatures not too cold during event.
  • Thundersnow is possible.
  • Some people will get NO SNOW.

So, let me start by saying that some of the stress that goes along with forecasting snow has been removed since many kids are out of school for Spring Break! That helps, because this storm is going to be a PAIN. As you see in the above graphic that I made this evening, some places will see a decent snowfall if our forecast does not change.

This is a "conditional" storm, meaning if the conditions have to be just right. We may have snow with temperatures above 32. Also, we have had warm temperatures lately...  so how that impacts the accumulation is somewhat of a mystery.

Most of the data shows snow in Region 8. Amounts and location of heaviest snow varies quite a bit, but the Euro, Canadian, GFS, NAM, StormCAST, RPM all show snow in Region 8 on Thursday PM.

We're watching it closely! Stay tuned to my Twitter feed at @ryanvaughan and stay tuned to Bryan McCormick tomorrow morning..



Diane@Diane's Place said...

As always, we're on the ragged snow/no snow line. Why do we always have to be right in the middle of the weather event line, either for winter weather and for severe storms? Just our curse for living where we do, I suppose.

Unknown said...

It will all be ok, nature is nature and it's course is going to run as it pleased! Thanks for keeping us posted Ryan, job always well done.