December 2016 through February 2017 in Region 8
- I expect the first half of Winter to be VERY COLD. In fact, it could be the coldest December we have seen in a few years.
- I expect the second half of Winter to be milder. In fact, we may see a preview of Spring in February with highs in the 60s and 70s on a few days. Beware, warmer temperatures could lead to severe thunderstorms.
- Overall, I expect above average precipitation this winter. (Rain, snow, and ice)
- Overall, I expect 3-5 wintry weather events that could impact schools and travel. 1-2 of those events could be ice (sleet and/or freezing rain), but I do not foresee a repeat of the 2009 ice storm.
- I'll do one last update to this forecasts during the first week of November.
As I mentioned above, I like to look at the past to forecast the future. We took a close look at the 1998-1999 winter season and the 1983-1984 winter season to look for similar patterns. Over the past few weeks, I've noticed similarities to the 1983-1984 winter and it strongly influenced the forecast for the 2016-2017 winter season.
For those interested, here is December-February of 1983-1984. I highlighted the interesting parts:
We will watch and see how it pans out and I'll do one last update during the first week of November. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of fall!