Friday, October 20, 2017

Severe Threat AND Razorback Game Forecast

Good Friday evening, everyone! We have a strong cold front coming in Sunday morning and storms are likely. While we may see some of the most substantial rainfall we have seen in awhile, the threat for severe weather appears to be LOW. Here are the bullet points on this storm as of now, Friday 5:00 PM:

  • Best chance of rain is Sunday.
  • 1-2" of rainfall is possible.
  • Could be the most rainfall for Jonesboro in 50 days!
  • Severe threat is LOW.
  • Storms may impact the Arkansas/Auburn game LATE, but more likely after the game.
Let's dig into a little bit of data. First, the data has been flip-flopping on the strength and timing of this front. At this time, it appears that a squall line will enter the NW part of Arkansas LATE on Saturday. However, we may have a few showers and storm BEFORE the line of storms.This is how radar may look at 7:00 PM on Saturday:
I believe the Razorback game will be dry at the start, if we can avoid the isolated showers prior to the squall line. We will have to watch radar and lightning closely through the game. By 10:00 PM, the line of storms will be getting close to NW Arkansas, but the game will likely be concluded by this time. Notice, Region 8 will still be mostly dry:
As the line of storms moves into the state, the western half of the state will be quite unstable. This map shows where the most unstable air will be located at 7:00 PM, prior to the storms:
As we go through the night and into Sunday morning, the line of storms should move into Region 8. Here's how radar could look at 1:00 AM. As you can see, the bulk of the rain is still west of Region 8. This is a Sunday morning weather maker for us:
Also, notice how the instability DROPS through the night. Here's CAPE (or the storm energy) at 1:00 AM. It greatly drops:
We will have to watch this storm evolve through the weekend. Stay tuned.



Rufus&Buddy said...

Thank you!

Michael Brown said...

THIS type of explanation is what many of us want. We appreciate the education. The topic is interesting and knowledge helps us better plan our days and to try to remain safe. Thank you, sir. Keep up the great work.