Friday, January 19, 2018

Next Storm Arrives Sunday Night

I'll admit that the warming trend is feeling nice across Region 8! Our next storm arrives on Sunday night and moves out Monday morning. Here are the quick points, first:

  • Spotty showers are possible on Saturday and Sunday, but the chances are LOW.
  • 100% chance of rain Sunday night into Monday morning.
  • All rain. NO WINTRY WEATHER.
  • 0.50"-1.00" of rain expected.
  • Lightning and thunder is possible.
  • Severe weather threat is very low.
  • No flooding threat.
So, let's dive into the data. As I mentioned above, there is a chance of some spotty showers this weekend as the warmer air increases. The chances are low and anything that does develop will not have much rainfall. This image shows the amount of rain that falls between 12AM and 6AM on Sunday morning:
The better rain chances come on Sunday night. This is the amount of projected rainfall between 6PM and midnight:
Most of the rain in Region 8 will come between midnight and 6AM:
I expect the back edge of rain to move out between 6AM-9AM for "MOST" of Region 8:

The only fly in the ointment that I want to keep an eye on is the chance for small hail producing storms on Monday in SEMO. As the upper-level ingredients move through on Monday, I'm SLIGHTLY concerned about a few hail producing storms. The hail would be SMALL, but still something to watch. The CAPE (Storm Energy) jumps up just a little. We will watch it, but I'm not overly concerned right now:
Enjoy the warmer temperatures this weekend!

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