Sunday, January 14, 2018

Something Between "Flurries" and "Snow"

As we have mentioned for a few days, something is set to come through on Monday, but the magnitude is still in question. I decided to look into the latest data this evening. Here are my thoughts right now:

  • Snow showers are tomorrow. The system is moving a little faster than previously thought.
  • AM Timing: SE Missouri and extreme northern Arkansas between sunrise and lunch.
  • PM Timing: Morning round fizzles out and new round forms Monday afternoon and evening for Southern Region 8.
  • Between the AM and PM Round of light snow includes a section in Region 8, including Jonesboro. In this area, accumulations should be lower. 
  • I doubt many will see more than 1" or so... and many areas will just see flurries.
  • Though light, some secondary roads may get a coating.
  • In summary, zero to 1" of snow is possible.
While there are essentially two rounds of precipitation chances, it is still the same storm system. Most data suggests a "lull" in the early afternoon, as the storm moves south.

Let's dig into some data. The short range HRRR shows snow in our northern areas on Monday morning:
In the areas you see above, we could have a quick coating on the roads. We could even squeeze out 1" of snowfall. As the system moves south, most data has the activity die out to just flurries:
While it is only flurries, they will stick. Slow down a little, just in case. THEN, most data has the band of snow re-firing SOUTH of Region 8 around midnight:
So, how much snow could we see? There's a lot that goes into this, but the Euro and GFS are showing decent snow to the north and south, but many areas of Region 8 may just see flurries. Here are two models outputs:

It's a tricky forecast, but one we will watch. Remember, ZERO to 1" is the forecast. Some will see nothing. Some may do some weak sledding. 

Have a great night!


Robin said...

Thank you for your hard work dedication.

imsoprecious78 said...

Thanks for the update, Ryan! �� Up here in Caruthersville, Mo, there’s still such a thick layer of sleet/ice on the ground, we could really use a little snow to give us some traction! Lol Have a blessed day & keep up the awesome work!!