Tuesday, April 03, 2018

Severe Storms Today: Timing, Threats, and Concerns

Good morning, everyone. I'll admit that I'm a little more concerned about the storms than when I joined you on Region 8 News last night. The atmosphere really gets unstable this afternoon and I have a growing concern that we may have enough ingredients to support tornadoes. Here are a few thoughts:

  • The line of storms may be a line of individual supercells instead of a solid line. This would be more conducive for tornadoes.
  • Timing has not changed. Storms impact western counties by 4PM.
  • Storms move from west to east, impacting the center of Region 8 between 4-7 PM.
  • Straight line winds are still the main threat, but hail is possible. 
  • As mentioned, I have a growing concern about tornadoes.
  • These storms should be out of Region 8 by 8PM.
Let's dive into some data. If you step outside this morning, you can feel a difference. The CAPE (Storm Energy) is going to be rising rapidly today. This is what it looks like this morning:
By 2PM, look how unstable we get across Region 8! RAPID changes:
It gets even worse by 4PM! The time period 4-7 PM is really concerning right now.:
When you combine the indices for instability and the dynamics of this storm system, the tornado parameters start to look dangerous. Here's a look at the Significant Tornado Parameter at 5PM. Don't focus so much on the exact locations, because this is a fluid situation. This is a model at a particular time. Just look at the trend. Anything over 3 is concerning to me today:
Here's how radar could look:
Make sure the notifications are turned ON for the Region 8 Weather App. We will have the Central Ford StormTRACKER out tonight and we will give you updates all night long. 


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