Monday, May 21, 2018

Tropical Rainfall POSSIBLE This Weekend!

It's several days out, so DO NOT ALTER PLANS YET. With that said though, I know a lot of people are making outdoor plans for Memorial Day Weekend. There is a tropical disturbance that is very far away from us right now. Some data is suggesting that the disturbance will move inland this weekend and could impact Region 8. Here are my thoughts right now:

  • Don't cancel plans yet. It's still early and things can change.
  • However, consider a Plan B.
  • Wind is not looking to be an issue.
  • The best chance of rain looks to be on Monday.
  • Pockets of heavy rain possible.
So, let's dive into some data. The maps below show the "precipitable water" in the atmosphere. Think of it as how much water there is available if it all rained out of the clouds. I want you to focus on the pinkish-salmon color. That's the deep, tropical moisture. This is the last run of the Euro model:

Notice where the moisture is on Wednesday:
By Friday, it starts moving inland, possibly as a tropical depression or storm. We should still be mostly dry on Friday:
By Saturday, we may start seeing a few more showers and storms:
If this plays out, Sunday would be more wet:
The latest Euro has this deep moisture lingering around on Memorial Day:
Once again, let's not worry, yet. I just wanted to give you as much notice as possible. Consider this your First Alert. We will update you with any changes.


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