Thursday, June 21, 2018

Severe Storms May Develop Around Lunchtime

I mentioned this last night and my concern is growing this morning, but severe storms MAY develop around lunchtime today Here are the bullet points this morning regarding today, June 21st:
  • The atmosphere will become much more unstable by lunchtime.
  • Storms should develop between 12-1 PM as a broken line of individual cells around Highway 67 and the storms will move east.
  • Main threat is damaging wind between 50-70 mph and hail in the core of the strongest storms.
  • Coverage is not widespread, so many may not see any storms.
  • Tornado threat is very low, but not nonexistent.
So, let's look at some maps. First off, the storm energy (CAPE) will greatly increase between now and lunch. This morning, the "fuel" is pretty low:
As we warm up, we become more unstable:
You may look at radar at noon and not see anything... But storms may rapidly evolve by 1-2PM..
And by 3:00, the storms will be quickly moving east...
At this time, it appears the threat will be gone by 4:00 for Region 8. This forecast will evolve through the day, so follow me on Twitter at @ryanvaughan and on the Region 8 Weather App.


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