Monday, August 20, 2018

Hail Threat Today

It's a little after midnight as I write this blog post regarding Monday afternoon, officially "today". It appears like we are going to see some severe storms develop later today that could produce some large hail and possibly tornadoes. Here are the bullet points:
  • Storms will fire after lunch.
  • Large hail is the main threat. The threat level is at "medium".
  • Quarter-size hail or larger is possible in these storms.
  • Coverage will be spotty, so not everyone will see rain.
  • Tornado threat is low, but still possible.
  • Storms should be gone by dinnertime. 
Here's my current thinking on the threat level for Monday afternoon:
The air will become very unstable in the area I have marked with a "medium" risk. CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy is the "fuel" for storms. Notice where it is at it's highest this afternoon:
Now, just because there is a high CAPE does not guarantee rain and storms. This is a projection of what radar could look like:
As you can see, the coverage will not be widespread, but the storms could be intense. 

We will keep an eye on them!

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