- Storms will fire after lunch.
- Large hail is the main threat. The threat level is at "medium".
- Quarter-size hail or larger is possible in these storms.
- Coverage will be spotty, so not everyone will see rain.
- Tornado threat is low, but still possible.
- Storms should be gone by dinnertime.
Here's my current thinking on the threat level for Monday afternoon:
The air will become very unstable in the area I have marked with a "medium" risk. CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy is the "fuel" for storms. Notice where it is at it's highest this afternoon:
Now, just because there is a high CAPE does not guarantee rain and storms. This is a projection of what radar could look like:
As you can see, the coverage will not be widespread, but the storms could be intense.
We will keep an eye on them!