Saturday, September 01, 2018

Watching Tropical Rains

There is a tropical disturbance that may form into a tropical storm over the next few days. It's that time of the year when we have to keep a close eye on the tropics, even for Region 8. Right now, it is near the Turks and Caicos islands, but is expected to move across Florida and possibly strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. At this time, I don't expect it to become a hurricane, but it stands a decent chance of becoming a tropical storm.

For us, we will have to watch how much rain it provides when it goes inland. One model keeps the deepest moisture along the gulf coast and DRENCHING many areas with SEVERAL inches of rain. Another model slings some of that moisture into Region 8, but overall... is not as wet for the overall system. Here's the latest look at 7 day forecast amounts from the Euro and GFS:

If it impacts us, it would be mid to late next week. We will watch it closely.


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