Gordon: Tuesday Morning Update

Good Tuesday morning, everyone! Not much has changed with the track of Gordon. Gordon will likely become a hurricane shortly and make landfall near the Mississippi/Louisiana coastline tonight. We will be covering it extensively tonight on Region 8 News. Here are the bullet points this morning:

• Gordon makes landfall tonight.
• Gordon comes into Arkansas as a DEPRESSION tomorrow night into Thursday.
• Region 8 will see less of an impact than other parts of Arkansas and Missouri.
• Highest wind gusts will be in southern and western Arkansas.
• Highest rain totals are likely going to be near the center of the track (outside of Region 8)
• There will be a SHARP gradient of rainfall totals over the next few days.

Let's dive into some maps and data. To be 100% transparent (and this may come back to bite me), I think most of Region 8 will be fine. Some of the most reliable data has the track staying southwest of Region 8. We will still get rain, but flooding rains and higher wind gusts should stay SW of us. We are watching it closely to look for changes. 

Let's talk about the rainfall expectations. First, here's the forecast from Weather Prediction Center at NOAA. Notice, they give Region 8 LESS THAN 1.00" of rainfall through the entire week:

This next map shows the expected heavy rainfall from Gordon. Once again, the worst stay away from Region 8, BUT it's still too close to not watch it closely:

As I have been doing, it seems NWS is basing a lot of their products on the European model. Here's the latest output of total rainfall through Sunday morning:

And here's a closer look at the total rainfall from the Euro. Notice that some parts of the state would get 5-10" of rainfall! IF this happened, most of Region 8 would see less than 2"... many less than 1":

I don't want to show you a one-sided picture though. There is still enough concern coming from other data sources that are going to keep us on our toes. The GFS shows the track a little more east, more broad, but not as extreme in Arkansas:

And here (below) is a closer look at the above map. Even this would not be devastating because it would come over 2-3 days. In my opinion, that's not as bad as getting 4-7" of rainfall in 24 hours like we do a couple of weeks back!

Now, let's talk about maximum wind gusts. Once again, we and the National Weather Service are not that concerned about the wind HERE in Region 8. Here's the probability of winds exceeding tropical storm force. There are concerns across much of Arkansas, but not that bad here in Region 8:

The latest data from the Euro showing where the highest wind gusts could be located. In Region 8, 20-25 mph gusts are possible:

Closer look:

That's all I have this morning. PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE stay updated with any changes to this forecast. I would hate for there to be changes to the track and you are caught off guard.

Thanks and have a good day,

Ryan