Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Severe Storms Possible (6/19/19)

Severe storms are still possible tomorrow (Wednesday). There are two time periods I want to watch tomorrow. The first time period is in the middle of the day. It appears that some storms may form along the boundaries that will be leftover from morning storms. This threat is pretty low and would be very isolated. The second time period is after sunset. That's the more concerning time period. Here are my thought this evening:

  • Don't panic, just have a way to get warnings tomorrow.
  • High wind and large hail are the main threats.
  • Tornado threat is low, but not nonexistent. 
  • Timing of the greatest threat: 7PM-10PM
  • While that is the greatest threat, strong storms are possible at any point of the day.
  • Storms end by midnight.
Let's dive into some maps. First off, a decaying complex of storms will enter the state from the west in the morning:
We should not be too unstable at this point and most of the storms should fizzle before reaching Region 8. Keyword... "most"... not all. Here's a look at CAPE (Storm Energy) at 7AM. Not too bad:
Now, let's fast-forward to the lunch hour. By this time, most of the storms have died out, but there could be 1-2 storms holding together OR new storms developing. I'm not too worried about these:
Even the CAPE (Storm Energy) is not that impressive, but higher than the morning. Notice the areas that get storms first will have less CAPE after they are rain cooled:
The evening is when the atmosphere gets really unstable! Here's CAPE (storm energy) at 7PM. If this happens, the evening storms will have a lot of energy to work with!
As a result, here's a projection of radar at 8PM:
Once again, these evening storms on Wednesday stand the best chance of becoming severe, with high wind and hail. Stay tuned!


1 comment:

Angela Sparks said...

Thank you, Ryan.