Thursday, November 07, 2019

OK... Let's chat about Monday.

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At this time, the Panicometer is as low as it gets for Monday! Side note... the Panicometer is a teenager! I started the Panicometer in November of 2006. Today, stations across the nation use a similar graphic. I don't mind though. I think it is a fun way to communicate the impacts of a winter event. While it is low right now, there is a good chance that it gets nudged up a little in the next couple of days. In fact, we may nudge it up a little on Region 8 News tonight.

So, is it going to snow? Well... the easy answer is, "it might". Here are bullet points on this storm that is still 4-5 days out:
  • There will be precipitation. It may just be rain, but something will fall on Monday!
  • If the cold air plunges in, we may switch to snow.
  • The cold air IS COMING. But, will it be here before the moisture is gone?
  • LIGHT accumulations are POSSIBLE. NOT likely. So don't freak out yet.
  • Too early for an "Accumulation Forecast", but I will show you some model output below.
  • At this time, teachers and students should plan on being at school on Tuesday.
  • Keep checking back as this storm evolves. These bullet points will be adjusted.

So... let's talk about the data. We have some energy in the coming in from the SW that will enhance the precipitation while a strong cold front dives south with some brutally cold air. MOST of the event will be PLAIN OLE RAIN. As you can see in the map below, PLAIN RAIN will cover Region 8 at the start of this system: 
As we go farther into Monday evening, the MUCH colder air arrives and the models have us switching to snow. The GFS model has us switching to snow sooner in Region 8, but the Euro has the changeover after sunset. Regardless, both are showing a switch to snow:
So, how much? In years past would not even entertain that question, but in a day where you can search around on the internet and find someone sharing it anyways, I'll open that can of worms. Keep in mind that when it comes to snow "sticking", a lot of factors come into play. This is just model output. First, the Euro has the changeover later for Region 8, but has the cold air in Missouri early enough to tap into the tail end of the precipitation better:
The GFS model has the cold air coming in faster, but the precipitation ending faster, too. This really limits the snow in Missouri, but not a huge change for us in Region 8, except that the snow would come in the daytime hours. This would be good for roads. Snow sticks to roads easier at night for several reasons. Anywho, here's the GFS:
Once again, those are just maps of model output. Being that it is still a few days out, this could change a lot! Stay tuned!


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