Winter Outlook 2019-2020

I'll be honest, this was a tricky outlook. In year's past, I find similar trends and patterns of the past and present to draw conclusions for the future. It's worked pretty well over the past several years. This year, I am struggling to find those correlations!

I've said it in the past, but I'm not what you would call a "long-range forecaster". I do this for fun. My job is normally forecasting the next 7-10 days.

So, where did I begin? Well, the Spring 2019 months were crazy wet. The summer did not yield any 100s. We had a lot of rain in August, but stayed mostly dry in September, with the exception of some late-month downpours. September was the hottest since 1925. We started October near 100, but ended with 30s and some flurries/sleet pellets across the state! It's been WACKY! I almost wanted to pass on making a Winter Outlook this year! But, what's the fun in that?

I initially "wanted" this to be an easy slam dunk. I wanted to look at 1925 (which had a hot September) and see huge correlations in the pattern from that year and this Winter. Sadly, it did not match up.

This year, we are really not in a "La Nina" or "El Nino" pattern. Some call it a "La Nada" or NOTHING. So, I looked at other "Nothing" years and compared it to what we have now. Don't panic when I say this, but the winter that had some similarities, was the 2008/2009 winter. Yes, that's the ice storm year, but DO NOT PANIC. That was a catastrophic event that is likely not to happen again in our lifetime. Plus, the power companies are WAY more prepared now. It's hard to find a limb over power line these days! If we had the exact same storm again, it would not be as bad because we are much more prepared.

So, here's your 2019-2020 Winter Outlook:

• We average about 5" of snowfall in Jonesboro each winter season. NW parts of Region 8 average more. I think we will be average on snowfall this year, if our winter events are snow and not sleet or ice. Remember, snow "accumulates" more than sleet and ice. Think of it as the difference between filling jars with BBs and cotton balls. Here is a map to show you our average snowfall each Winter since 2000:

• There are some signs that the storm tracks will often move directly over Region 8. This means the frequency of storms may be higher. Even though our snowfall is expected to be near average, I expect the overall precipitation to be above average. There are some signs that some of these storms could be ICING events. 
• In regard to temperatures, I was really torn. However, I've come to believe that temperatures will be near average. Here's a breakdown:
• December average low: 29, high: 48.
• January average low: 26, high: 46.
• February average low: 30, high 51.
• March average low: 38, high 61.
• Here are some random predictions I'm making for this Winter:
• Big swings in temperatures.  Single digit lows in January, but some 70s in February.
• 1 "small" wintry event before Christmas. (maybe advisory worthy)
• 1 "good" snowfall with 3-6" across Region 8. (Winter Storm worthy)
• 1 "OK" snowfall with 1-2" across Region 8. (Advisory)
• 1 "icing" event, but not a repeat of the 2009 ice storm!
• I predict an average of 4 snow days or AMI days. 
• 1 severe weather event. Probably in February. 

In summary, AVERAGE snowfall, ABOVE AVERAGE Overall Precipitation, AVERAGE Temperatures. Yes, ICING is possible, but don't get too hung up on what happened in 2009.

So, there it is, folks! I'm not super confident in this year's outlook. BUT, as I have said in the past, this is just a fun thing to do late in the Fall. It's fun to watch it unfold and it's rewarding when it is accurate! I can only think of 1 year where I completely blew the outlook. I wasn't too upset about it though!

Have a great day!

Ryan