We are about halfway through winter and I wanted to look back at my winter outlook to see how we are doing so far. Unfortunately, I'm giving myself a C right now. It's passing, but it's not great. I BLEW the December outlook, but several of the other bullet points are happening. At the start of January, my grade was a big fat F. So, here's what I had as the Winter Outlook for 2021-2022 with my grade so far:
- FAIL: Big arctic outbreaks are possible in December. Overnight lows in the teens are likely and single-digit lows are possible
- PASS: Sleet and freezing rain is more likely than snow this winter.
- HALF CREDIT SO FAR: 1 decent snow event. 2-3 sleet and freezing rain events.
- PARTIAL CREDIT: Flooding rains are possible, especially in February. Magnitude is still questionable, but seeing 5-6" of rainfall in February is not out of the question.
- GRADE NOT IN YET: February will have above average temperatures.
- PASS: Big swings in temperatures are likely through the winter.
- PASS: 1-2 Severe weather events are possible with damaging winds. Maybe even tornadoes.
Let's recap... I wrote this outlook in November. I started at the beginning of the month and finished up after Thanksgiving. Doing an 8-Day Forecast is tough enough, so I'm not sure why I do a 3 month outlook. I suppose it is fun and I enjoy the research. First off, my outlook for December was WAY off. It was the worst monthly outlook I've ever written. I predicted below average temperatures with big arctic outbreaks and we had the warmest December on record! This is why I had a big fat F at the end of the month.
Since then, a lot of the outlook is verifying true. We have had more sleet and freezing rain than snow. We have had 2-3 "icy" events. I'm giving myself partial credit on the possible flooding rains. We had some heavy rains in December, but not to the magnitude I thought and I also thought that would be more likely in February. We will watch to see how the rest of the month pays out. We will also have to see if we have above average temperatures in February. It's hard to imagine right now, but we do have above average temperatures in the forecast. The last two items have happened. We have had big swings in the temperatures and we have had severe weather. One of those severe weather events (Dec 10) was one of the worst ones we've ever had in Region 8.
So for now, I'm giving myself a C. It's not great. It's passing and there is no chance of me getting an A this semester, BUT if we have above average temperatures, some heavy rain, and one good snowfall this month, I'll bring it up to a B. Honestly, I could do without the heavy rain and snow... so I hope I end up with a C+ of B-. :)