Monday, September 03, 2007

Wetter Weather This Week?

For those of you that have read the blog for awhile, you already know that the above image is from the BUFKIT program that we use. It is a program that helps us analyze computer model data. The above image is the midday (18Z) run of the Global Forecast System or GFS. You can plot all types of data in the overview window, but I chose to plot precipitation (green bars), clouds (shades of white), and temperatures (red line) for simplicity. The time goes from right to left, which I have always thought was backwards... Oh well, they did ask my opinion.

Looking at this data, we may get a good 1-2" of rain by the end of the weekend. I believe this may be underestimated AND apparently I am not alone... The HPC also thinks Arkansas will get more than 1-2". In fact, if you look at the image below, they have parts of Region 8 getting more than 3" of rain over the next 5 days! I'm excited about the rain, but even more excited to have something to talk about during my 5 minutes of airtime during the newscast!
We'll see what happens. As dry as it has been lately, it's hard to get in front of the camera and raise rain chances too much. Therefore, our rainfall forecasts may be a little conservative until it actually happens! Even though I believe it will rain, it will be really hard to raise rain chances any higher than 50%.
Tune in tomorrow night to see how confident I am about the indications of rain!
Take care,


Jason H said...

Ryan, a real weatherman would go on the news tonight and give a 100% chance of rain for one day this week. You would become a an instant hero in Northest Arkansas! Of course, the farmers could care less about rain now. Most of them are tring to cut corn and rice. They have wanted rain for 5 weeks and couldn't get it. Now they don't need rain, and watch what happens.

Heidi, live from the Atacama Desert said...

What's rain???

Heidi says IT IS RAINING!!! said...

Ryan, there are drops of water falling from the sky - LOTS of them. ... I got to thinkin', so I looked up the word rain at, and by golly, it turns out that what I'm seeing out my window happens to be this "rain" that I've been hearing about. Land's End ... Now everything is wet outside. This is kinda neat - Wouldn't it be somethin' if it lasted a while?! 8-O

Anonymous said...

Rain???.....honestly Ryan, sprinkles just dont get the job done.....

Jason H said...

If you go outside right now and listen, you can hear the grass and trees gulping.

This is the first system in a mighty long time that everybody in Northeast Arkansas is gonna get rain in the same day !!!!