Friday, October 19, 2007

Mr. Mom and Next Storm

Well, I'm playing Mr. Mom tonight. My wife has been in Seattle this week visiting her sister and my sister and dad have gone home. That leaves two boys and me. Don't worry, they have eaten and one of them has already had a bath. I even changed the oil in the minvan tonight! I juggle both rolls well!

Anywho, let's chat about the next storm. I'm at home without a mic or camera, so there will not be a video update unless you want graphics and elevator music.... wait, that's The Weather Channel....

It still looks like we have a pretty good storm system set to come in Monday, but it may not cause severe weather. If you look at the upper-level map above, you will see a deep trough (U-shape) coming in on Monday night. I'm not as impressed about the severe weather potential, but things can change. It appears that the instability is going to out-run the dynamics of this storm system. Additionally, the trough may never become negatively tilted. Click here for some info about negatively tilted troughs.
As some of you know from other posts, I get a little concerned when the 850mb winds go at or above 35 knots. The winds may do that Sunday Night (above image), but it will be way before the main convection swings though Region 8. All in all, the system isn't gelling together to form a major outbreak.

The Earth still has to spin around a few more times and things can change, but right now it does not look like a big deal. With that said, it is still going to turn much cooler. In fact, next week looks cold, gloomy, and dreary. Here's the BUFKIT program's Overview window (below). I have plotted the GFS temperature (red line), rainfall (green bars), Clouds, and CAPE. The time goes from right to left. Notice that the CAPE never gets above 800. That's not too impressive. Secondly, note how chilly and cloudy it will be once the front moves through. It shows highs in the upper 50s and lows in the 40s! I doubt we'll put that in the 7-day forecast yet... We'll see..... Regardles, my Bermuda grass is going to turn yellow soon.... Bummer.

Well, I just took a little break to go tuck the boys into bed. I guess I'll go sit back and have a cup of coffe now.

Have a great night,



Jason H said...

Sit back and have a cup of coffee ?!? Don't you need to be sending e-mails to warn people about Monday's tornado outbreak ?!? ;-D

Heidi's got the break-dancing skilz said...

Weather graphic music makes me want to bust a move.

Anonymous said...

Its raining a soft rain here in Corning, guess you found us after all...giggle.....however zilth those tornado warnings ... OK OK, I know your the weather man, "go ahead `do you job! Hey~ what is Heidi talking about with weather graphic music,gotta know, as i`m queen of music memory inspiring.....