Thursday, April 22, 2010

Severe Weather Outbreak? I'm Not Sold On It...

Despite a few signs pointing to a severe weather outbreak in Region 8 and lots of chatter in the weather community, I'm not sold on a major problem with severe weather this weekend in OUR viewing area. YES, we will have watches and possibly some warnings, but I'm not sold on seeing widespread damage. I may be eating those words this weekend, but as of right now... I think the greater risk is South and East on Saturday. Things are just not matching up in my opinion. The above image is the 00Z NAM model in BUFKIT. The timestamp goes from right to left. I labeled the line that shows our greatest instability occurs Friday night. However, our best vertical motion in the atmosphere holds off until Saturday. This alone tells me that the greatest threat may just be heavy rain.

Let's contrast the above image for one that does look more severe. This is Tupelo, MS... 00Z NAM:
Notice, the best chance of "rising motion" in the air is lined up well with the greatest instability. CAPE is over 1000 (unlike us) and the timing is a little more in line.

I'm not saying we will not see thunderstorms. WE WILL. I'm just not expecting a big tornado outbreak in the Jonesboro area. If I lived in the Tupelo, MS area, I'd be much more concerned!!! So, it will be close and needs watching. Things can shift FAST.

Areas in Eastern , AR stand the best chance of seeing severe weather this weekend in Region 8. Hopefully, I don't pay for these comments on Saturday!

Stay tuned, things can change fast.

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