I know this is hard to believe, but NE Arkansas and SE Missouri caught a break from the EXTREME heat so far. As I type this at 3:40 PM on Monday, it is 95° in Jonesboro and 104° in Searcy. Clearly, Jonesboro has something different going on! In the above graph, it shows the observed temperatures in Jonesboro (dots) and the various guidance numbers we can look at while forecasting. The actual temperature is lower than the MOS numbers or the mean output of a couple of models. It's also lower than the NWS forecast. Notice, all of the numbers shoot up tomorrow and despite the cooler than expected numbers today, I still feel we will have widespread 100s. Let me explain why...
The above graph shows the winds in Jonesboro. Notice that the winds have been coming from a 045 to 135 heading. That's in degrees from north... so the wind has been FROM the NE to East to Southeast today. THAT has kept Region 8 from hitting 100° today. It's a slightly cooler airflow that will end tonight and tomorrow. Notice how the graph shows ALL models with a southerly wind tomorrow as the boundary moves away. With the southerly wind tomorrow, I fully expect us to top 100° and we have a forecast high of 102°.
This ridge will break down a little on Thursday and Friday to provide some rain chances, but it builds back in by the first of next week! Take it easy!
Ryan
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