Saturday, February 08, 2014

Will It Snow on Monday? Not So Fast...

Most of us are sick of snow and there is a lot of talk about more snow on Monday. While there is a chance of snow and Winter Storm Watches have been posted for parts of the state, there is a CHANCE that we MISS IT.

< insert brakes and screeching tires sound>

That's right, I'm not completely sold on a decent snow, YET. We use several computer models to help us determine the forecast. These models have their own strengths and weaknesses. Sometimes one model is working better than others, and some models work better in different seasons. One of the models we use is the GFS. The GFS has been doing a spectacular job this winter! With that said, I feel we need to look closely at it's solution. 4 of the last 5 model runs of the GFS have the low tracking farther south and leaving most of Region 8 with just a dusting (at best). In fact, here's the latest snowfall projection from the GFS:
If you notice in the above image, the GFS is showing a swath of 1-3" in Central Arkansas, with some spotty areas getting a dusting in Region 8. Being the father of 4 kids that have been out of school for 9 days, I like the GFS solution! But...

The NAM model has been the most aggressive with snow. It has a wider swath of snow and slams the state with a lot more moisture. Take a look at the difference:
As you can see, there's a lot more snow with the NAM  and now you see the forecasting dilemma! The NAM still shows the heaviest snowfall south of Region 8, so I'm confident in thinking we don't get the bulk of the snow, BUT do we see 1-3"? That's what I'm not sold on, yet.

Here are my bullet points at 10:30 pm on Saturday night:
  • This forecast is still questionable.
  • With that said, I feel confident that the heaviest will be south of Region 8, along and south of I-40.
  • Anything that falls will stick immediately. 
  • Timing is also questionable. NAM is faster and bring the snow in during the day on Monday. GFS is slower and brings it in Monday evening and night.
  • We will know much more tomorrow.
I'm sorry that I'm still on the fence on this storm, but that is why we do not get too cutesy with snowfall projections until the storm is closer. We should know MUCH more tomorrow evening. 

I'm going back to work tomorrow to give Andrew a break. He's been working for 9 days straight while I've had the flu and I greatly appreciate it. I used more sick days this week than I have in several years combined. The flu was no joke. In fact, I'm still tired and I get out of breath, so cut me some slack tomorrow if I look and act like death! LOL At least I'm not contagious.

Have a good night and we'll chat tomorrow (Sunday),

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