Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Could It Snow Friday?

One model (NAM) started to hint at a Friday snowfall with it's model run this morning. This evening, it still shows the CHANCE of snowfall on Friday morning:
At first, I discounted it because other models barely had enough moisture to get the ground wet and it appeared that the temperatures were too warm for snow. I still think that surface temperatures may stay above 32°, even though cold enough aloft will support snow. Here are my bullet points this far out:
  • I'm still NOT sold on it. I need us to get closer to Friday and see more data that supports this outcome.
  • If it does snow, it may not stick to roads. We have had a couple of warm days and surface temperatures will be above freezing. Plus, if it falls during the day, it's harder for it to stick the roads.
  • If it occurs, it should not be much. (Famous last words)
I WILL say that the GFS this evening started to come in line with the NAM. It shows colder air and the moisture farther north. In fact, the GFS now shows a dusting to 2" in parts of the state:
Don't let the map above get you excited. We are still a few days out. This is just a model. Stay tuned for changes in the forecast as we move into the latter part of the week.

Have a good week,

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