Monday, October 26, 2015

Halloween Forecast as of Monday, 10/26.

Each year, one of the toughest forecasts for me is Halloween. It's a night when a lot of people are outdoors and impacted by the weather. Add in that we also have a home football game at ASTATE and my stress level to get the forecast right is a little higher. The above image shows how much precipitation is projected to fall between 7PM and 1AM on Halloween night, according to the latest run of the GFS. Keep in mind, model output is NOT A FORECAST. With that said, it does make me lean towards a wetter forecast than what I'd prefer. Here are my bullet points, as of Monday 10/26:

  • Rain chances are higher than normal.
  • I do not think it will be a solid sheet of rain, meaning that we may get some trick or treating in, even if this storm moves into Region 8 on Saturday.
  • Regardless, the ground will likely be wet.
  • At this time, the unstable air SHOULD arrive after midnight. This is my utmost concern. We will watch the severe weather threat CLOSELY to see if it speeds up. I do no want a repeat of what we saw in Caraway. We will warn you in advance.
  • It also looks windy. This messes up costumes and bonfires. :(
Pay attention closely to the forecast this week!


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