Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Halloween Forecast Update, Wed 10/28

The data that is coming in still makes me optimistic that the evening hours of Halloween will be drier than the daytime hours. That's good for trick or treating and good for the ASTATE game. I'm still not sold on a dry forecast, but at least not as wet as earlier in the day. Let's take a look at some model runs. This is the Euro. Click image to enlarge:
If you notice in the above image, most of the rain will be east of the Mississippi River by the time kids will be trick or treating and the ASTATE game starts. Let's look at the GFS:
The GFS in the above image does not show as much rain, but has some showers lingering into the evening. Now, let's look at the NAM model:
The NAM has Region 8 mostly dry by the evening, too.

Now, the reason I'm optimistic is that the NAM and Euro have been consistent. I like seeing models starting correctly and I like them to be consistent. I understand that they can be consistently wrong, but I'm feeling a little better about trick or treating. We will watch it unfold!

Have a good night!

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