Monday, November 02, 2015

2015-2016 Region 8 Winter Forecast!

I've looked over a lot of old climate logs, as mentioned in an earlier blog post (click here). I've looked at our current pattern. I've read what NOAA thinks about Region 8's Winter. I've read what the NWS says about Region 8's weather. I've even looked at many of your persimmon seeds! It's now the first part of November and here are my thoughts. As always, in bullet points:
  • 1-3 Winter events that will impact schools and roads. One may be a "good one".
  • 1-2 Severe weather events with high winds, hail, and tornadoes possible.
  • Average precipitation from Dec-Feb: 1-2" above average.
  • Average highs from Dec-Feb: 0-2° above average
  • Average lows from Dec-Feb:  3-5° above average 
  • There will be a couple of "Big Swings" in temperatures this winter. Meaning, one day will be warm with above average temperatures and then a blast of cold air will come into Region 8.
  • With that said, when you average the temperatures, I think the Winter will be WARMER than average.
  • Bonus; I think we will see "a little wintry weather" as early as the first part of December. :)
A wise meteorologist once told me to always be vague enough to be accurate. I was probably not vague enough in this forecast, but we'll see how it shakes out. It's all in good fun to forecast 4 months in advance anyways! Right? :)

Also for fun, here are some maps from the 1997-1998 Winter using tools from the Midwest Climate Center. This winter "may" be similar to that Winter:

Snowfall of 1997-1998:
 Average Highs from 1997-1998 Winter:
 Average lows from 1997-1998 Winter:
 Snowfall departure from mean in Winter of 1997-1998:
 Have a great day and a great winter!


Derek Phelps said...

It should be interesting to see. I know weather bell is predicting a harsher scenario. I have been impressed with Joe Bastardi so far.

Ron Bellomy said...

The persimmon seeds say spoons. Lots of snow.

glen cullen said...

Do you think we will have a white christmas Ryan