Friday, January 22, 2016

Storm Recap

The above image shows what fell last night and where. As I look at that map, there is no way to have forecast the storm accurately. I would have never gone on-air with a forecast map that has an "ice storm sandwich" between "heavy snow bread". Regardless, I'm my toughest critic and I'm looking for ways to learn from last night.

At my house, I had at least 0.25" of freezing rain, if not more. All rain gauges were frozen. I left and drove west to find snow. As I came down Crowley's Ridge by Mrs. Addies on Hwy 412, I started noticing white rooftops. By the time I got to Light, they had a dusting of snow. I kept driving west and by the time I arrived in Walnut Ridge, they had 2-3" of snow. That's only 20 miles! I then turned north and found the 5-6" in Randolph County. A direct path from my house to the 6" of snow is 31 miles. Folks, that's a tough forecast.

I've taken the slamming on social media from those that saw no snow. It comes with the job. In my bitterness, I banned a few people that I shouldn't have. If that was you, I'm sorry. Maybe.

I have an idea for a blog post soon that compares Meteorologists to Referees. We don't always get the call right, but we don't do it on purpose.

Have a great weekend. You guys are the best viewers in the world.

Ryan

19 comments:

Jay Paul Woods said...

Ryan you did the best you could. You even said upfront that this would be a tricky forecast. Haters are gonna hate. Keep up the good work!

Evelyn said...

You are still the best! Appreciate all that you do for us.

Anonymous said...

i would always rather be safe than sorry. you're a meteorologist, not a psychic. thanks for all you do and all your sleepless nights.

Rufus&Buddy said...

You ALL did a fantastic job! You kept us up to date even when everything was changing!!! As you said, this is prob once in a life time event to predict. But we were all informed!!! We all had time to prepare!! Isn't that the best part?? High five! A+ Hope everyone gets some sleep!!

Anonymous said...

You are doing a great job! Thank you for helping us stay safe.

Anonymous said...

Accuweather, as usual, got it right. That's why I always stick with them.

J. Lovelady said...

Winters not over. It might be more accurate next time. My kids want snow to wear their snow boots. We still have hope!

Kevin Finley said...

To the anonymous one who says Accuweather got it right, I guarantee you they did NOT have the map Ryan posted above. Your lies are not appreciated here. If you don't like Ryan or KAIT then change the channel. No reason for your post. You look like a fool...but that's why you remained anonymous now isn't it? 😂

Jvannada said...

You do a great job! Don't let those people get you down. It's not an easy job, & you and your whole team work really hard. Region 8 appreciates it!

Ryan Vaughan said...

Nice try anonymous... but you are incorrect. Accuweather forecast: http://postimg.org/image/yg86nknx3/

Ryan Vaughan said...

Nice try anonymous... but you are incorrect. Accuweather forecast: http://postimg.org/image/yg86nknx3/

Teresa Fuller said...

I talked to my students about this on Thursday about why it's so hard to predict winter weather. You have to predict the surface temperature and other temperatures through the atmosphere AND the moisture! Very complicated! Started class with the quick question of why it's so much harder to predict winter weather than summer?

D Moore said...

We moved to Western Ky last year and I still Follow you for weather updates due to my family and friends still live in Greene county. The coverage you provide not just on air but through social media is 2nd to none in my opinion. We did not have a fraction of the info here that you and the other meteorologist provided. I knew more about the weather in Arkansas than here in Kentucky.

R. Shelton said...

I think you do a fantastic job!!

Kimberly Anderson said...

Ryan don't worry about the negative statements. I would like to see them do better. I'm in the Minturn area and we got snow and ice. Doesn't matter which one was more because I just don't like cold. All in all you did a great job. Next time just tell them to look out their window and forecast for themselves!

Matthew Collier said...

Dude, get off your own back. That was an impossible forecast to nail down correctly. You aren't God and He didn't share His plans with you. You did the best you could, and we appreciate your hard work.

Jeff Hamilton said...

This statement you made before the event is pretty clear.

This is like predicting what a bull will do when it comes into the arena. We know it is coming in... but what it does when it gets here is questionable! Giddy up!

I don't think you got anything wrong, you basically said it can go either way. Your hands down the best chief meteorologist Kait has ever had. The entire storm team is top notch.

I personally appreciate your level of commitment to the community. You past on a chance to hang out with Brad Paisley to stay at the station and go over data. NO ONE predicted an ice storm between snow on either side.

Another thing I appreciate is you and your team interact with viewers on social media. You respond to most people that are respectful, most people in your position DON'T.

You do an awesome job for NEA, and most people know that. Enjoy your weekend, thanks for all you do!

Anonymous said...

Ryan
No one could have known what would happen ! I personally want to thank you. Your forecast had reasons behind it no one may understand. I went out after looking at the "panicometer" and at that time purchased necessities I am thanking God I did so because my child became very ill and we wound up needing all those things The things I purchased to keep the children occupied really came in handy! So without the forecast you gave I would have been in trouble You used all the tools you have available and made the most accurate forecast anyone could Your dedication to keeping us safe is what I would describe as altruistic weather forecasting. Giving of yourself to keep us all safe To those that are criticizing I ask if they have ever made a mistake? If I asked those who have never made a mistake to throw the first stone none would be thrown ! After all we are not omnipotent!! Those that are criticizing must not remember the ice storm that took lives! I for one am thankful for the occasional missed forecasts. In your case Ryan it is very rare to miss a forecast but if you predict a tornado and it misses me I for one am thankful ! You do a fantastic job Please do not waste another minute providing rebuttals to those who criticize your valiant efforts!

Anonymous said...

As a Christian mother I say AMEN!!! To the above post!! I think she said it best!! Also "national forecasters" describe the conditions to forecast as "difficult" and "hit and miss". RYAN I HOPE YOU READ THAT POST ABOVE!!! She said it perfectly as you are an altruistic weatherman!!