Wednesday, February 08, 2012
Active Next Week
First, lets talk precipitation. We now have rain in the forecast for Friday, as the front looks to have a little more moisture than previously thought... but still not a lot. It's the small area of green bars on Friday. Then there are two periods to watch next week. FIRST, is Monday. Cold air will be in place this weekend, but warmer air will be trying to move in on Monday. This poses a problem when trying to forecast precipitation type. I'll explain shortly, but the blue line is trying to indicate that it will start as snow. Not so fast though.. I do not trust the algorithm here that says snow. I'm thinking it starts as sleet. I'll explain why shortly.
Lastly, look at the red line climb by the middle of next week. That is warm air ahead of a storm modeled to come through on Wednesday. It's really early, but the dynamics and energy may be in place to support severe weather. IF it still looks like this in a few days, I'll dig in on the details. Now let's go back to Monday.... with this graphic:
As you can see, forecasting precipitation type will be difficult on Monday, but we're up for the challenge!
Posted By: Ryan at 8:22 PM