Thursday, March 21, 2013

Spring Snow 2013, Thursday 12:00 AM Update

I'm staying up late to check more data, plus March Madness begins later today... so I'm excited. Our forecast has not changed much, but here are the bullet points:

  • Snow and rain will start by mid afternoon.
  • Most of the precipitation will fall sometime between 4PM and Midnight.
  • Some parts of Region 8 will see mostly rain.
  • Some parts of Region 8 will see mostly snow through midnight. 
  • It will be hard (but possible) to see accumulation on the roads.
  • Any snow you get will melt fast.
StormCAST is our in-house computer model at KAIT. It shows you how wacky the weather will be later today. It's having a tough time trying to determine where the rain will be and where the snow will be falling at 6:00 PM:

There are a lot of maps floating around on TV and the internet concerning accumulation. Some of the maps are straight from models, showing snowfall totals based on algorithms. If I do not "somewhat" agree with these maps, I try not to post, tweet, or blog using them. Some forecasters may disagree with my thinking and I respect that opinion. I just think it causes confusion. I may show them to show model inconsistencies, but will mention that when I post them. 

A second type of map is a manually made FORECAST that shows you the best possible accumulations based on our analysis of all of the data. So, tonight I have posted two types of maps. One is our forecast and one is StormCAST , which if you look closely, is not too far from our forecast. I just think we'll see a little more in the Ozarks and a wider snow band.

First, our forecast:

Second, the latest data from stormCAST:

We have a new round of data that comes in tomorrow morning and I'll be up bright and early to see if anything changes. This storm is going to be fun to watch unfold, regardless of the outcome!

Stay tuned!

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