Monday, February 29, 2016

Winter Is Over. How Was The Outlook?

Meteorological winter ends tonight. While the "official" final numbers have not been completed, I'm pleased with how the Region 8 Winter Weather Outlook turned out. You can read the outlook, which was written on 11/2/15 here.

The outlook called for 1-3 winter events and 1 could be a "good one". I'd say that prediction was decent. The "good one" was the one that caused a lot of sleet and freezing rain and 6" of snow in Pocahontas.

The outlook called for 1-2 severe weather events. That happened in December. Link here.

The outlook called for 1-2" of above average precipitation. That did NOT happen. As you can see in the graph below, we had above normal precipitation in December, but February was rather dry. Click image to enlarge:
The outlook called for HIGHS to be 0-2° above average and they were 3.2° above average.

The outlook called for LOWS to be 3-5° above average and they were 3.8° above average.

Here's a graph of the temperatures over the 3 month period. Click to enlarge:

Most of the forecast was on track. While I was off a little on precipitation, I still think it was an accurate outlook for the 2015/2016 Winter. Now, bring on Spring!

I'll try to work on a Spring outlook soon.


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