Sunday, December 17, 2017

More Rain Coming Tuesday Night

We had some much needed rain across Region 8 last night, but much more is needed to break the drought. Here are some of the rainfall reports from last night:

Jonesboro: 0.43
Jonesboro at Hilltop: 0.70"
Brookland 0.47
Paragould: 0.44
Walnut Ridge: 0.53"
Pocahontas: 0.38"
Marmaduke 0.53"
New port: 0.53"
Pollard" 0.36"
Trumann: 0.45"
Ripley County, North End: 0.28"
Southside Batesville: 0.67", also a report of 0.64"
Earle: 1.27"
Walcott: 1.00"
Agnos: 0.50"
Kennett 0.32"
Ravenden Springs: 1.03"
Ash Flat 0.46"
Cherokee Village at 0.45"

More rain is coming! The forecast has drastically ramped up for rainfall on Tuesday night. Just a couple of days ago, most of the week looked dry. As data started changing, we have adjusted our forecast. The NAM model has been the most aggressive with the rain on Tuesday night. Here's what radar could look like by 10PM on Tuesday night:
As of right now, the southern part of Region 8 near I40 would see the most rainfall. The NAM shows 1-3" of rain! Click image to enlarge:
The GFS and Euro are starting to follow the NAM, too. NO wintry weather with this system. This would all be RAIN and much needed rain! Here's the GFS output for rain totals for Tuesday night:
If you notice, there is a SHARP cutoff on rain totals. This axis of heavier rainfall can shift to the north or south, so stay tuned for any flash flooding problems. At this time, the heaviest rain should be I40 southward.

Models are still flip-flopping about the chance of wintry weather closer to Christmas. Nothing is concrete enough to get excited about right now.


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