Monday, December 31, 2018

Winter Weather This Week? I'm Not Too Worried.

I've had a few people asking about the chance of snow and ice this week, so let me clear up some things. First, it's not looking like a big deal. Yes, we have had the chance of "mix" in our forecast for a few days, but it's mainly going to be a cold rain in Region 8. Here are my bullet points this morning:

  • This will be mainly a cold rain event. 
  • No data is showing enough wintry weather to warrant any watches, warnings, or advisories for Region 8. Therefore, we do not have RED on the 7 Day Forecast beyond today.
  • Yes, we will see some snowflakes and freezing rain in parts of Region 8. I just don't expect huge problems.
  • Timing: Wednesday and Thursday.
  • NW Arkansas may get enough for travel impacts, but I'm not even sold on that.
  • If this changes, we will tell you.
Let's look at some maps to back up my thoughts. First, the Weather Prediction Center agrees with me:

Here's the probability of at least 0.10" of freezing rain from the WPC:

Here's the probability of 1"+ of snowfall. Yes, that shows a 10% chance or less in the Ozarks. Not too concerning at this time.:

Here's the probability of wintry weather for Thursday:

Now, let's look at the GFS and Euro weather models. Here's the output for snowfall:

And here's the output of freezing rain:

Here's the deal. I know there is a lot of social media chatter. We are watching it. We are not too worried. If we DO get worried, we will tell you. Otherwise, enjoy New Year's Eve!



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