- Greatest risk is mid-afternoon.
- I'm expecting numerous "pea-sized hail" reports from these storms.
- Gusty winds are possible.
- 1-2 small, spin-up, fast-forming tornadoes will be possible.
- School officials need to look at the weather situation before dismissing. Don't panic or change plans right now... just make sure there are no active warnings.
- Threat should be gone this evening.
Now let's talk about the details. As I type this, we are in the 40s. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 60s as a warm front continues to move north:
When we get between the warm front and the cold front, we will be in what we call the "warm sector". This is the area of concern where we will get unstable. This map below shows the instability. The parameter is called CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy. Think of it as the fuel for severe weather. This map is just a snapshot from 3PM, so the threat will be moving west to east. Notice how it increases this afternoon:
When you breakdown more of the parameters, there are some products that try to pinpoint the risks. This map is a supercell index. Notice what it shows at 3PM. It's not crazy high, but worth bringing some concern. It could be much much worse.:
But, what most of you will be looking at is RADAR. This is a model projection of what radar could look like this afternoon. Remember, it is a model. Don't look at particular locations to pinpoint the supercells. Look at the pattern, the timing, the spacing, etc. A model is just giving you "an idea" of what could happen. It's not a prophet:
Stay weather aware this afternoon in case you get a warning at your location. Once again, this is a LOW risk.