Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Severe Or Not?

We have a big cold front coming through and when two big air masses collide, there is a chance of volatile weather. I'm not completely sold on the idea of severe weather, but the SPC is thinking there is a chance... so let's discuss.

The above image is the forecast sounding for Wednesday afternoon. The left side of the window shows the severe weather indices that we note when forecasting severe weather. BUFKIT is a nice little tool that automatically flags the noteworthy indices in red. Notice, there are a few indices that are flagged, but they are mostly borderline. For example, CAPE barely goes over 1000 and the Lifted Index (LI) only drops to around -3.8. I don't get too concerned until CAPE climbs over 1200 and LI drops to -4... this time of the year. As you can see.. it is marginal.

For those that read the blog often, you are familiar with the BUFKIT program's "overview" window. The timestamp goes from right to left and I have plotted these parameters (GFS) in the above image:
  • Temperature
  • Rainfall
  • CAPE
  • Elevated CAPE at 1000 and above
  • And my own artwork!

Sarah is still holding down the Fort, but if severe weather breaks out I will be at the station. We have adjusted well here at home and I should be able to head back to work soon.

I'm going to stay off work through Thanksgiving, unless severe weather breaks out. I actually want to go back work, but I am soooo thankful to be able to stay at home to help my family. I have only called in sick 2 days during my seven years with Raycom Media... It's nice to have the days available!

Management has been very understanding and Sarah has really stepped up! Shoot her an email and thank her, if you get a chance! stipton@kait8.com

Take care and we'll keep you posted on the weather. Get ready for cold weather!

Ryan

5 comments:

Jason H said...

The timimg of the front is not very good. Maybe the cloud cover in the morning will keep temps down in the afternoon before the the front gets here. Hopefully you'll get to stay home tomorrow afternoon/evening. I'll be ready to give reports in Randolph County if it does break out.

Way to go Sarah...keep up the great work !!!

Heidi said...

Sarah is awesome, and not just because she knows about turkey bowling. :D

I've been monitoring the GFS & WRF models and they both seem to have storms breaking out on the 18Z run, but are not in agreement as to location. WRF puts the bulk of the action in northern MS and western TN, but the GFS puts the storms in the Missouri bootheel, and earlier (12Z), in east-central AR, around I-40. I think Ryan is going to work tomorrow if the WRF verifies. - Maybe get the StormTRACKER on the road?! :D

Heidi is now awake. :) said...

I think I need to make a rule to not write any blog comments after about 10:30PM, at which time I begin to descend into a fog and am eventually unable to function. I use my last comment as evidence of this phenomenon -- I'm pretty sure I said GFS at least once when I meant WRF ... Not sure it matters now anyway, since the runs have been updated! :D

One thing I do know for sure is that there were lots of geese flying last night, ahead of the front. That's usually a pretty good signal that things are about to change drastically! :D

Chaser said...

Looks like you will have to go into work after all Ryan. Looks pretty nasty up around Oregon County.

Chaser said...

Looks like you will have to go into work after all Ryan. Looks pretty nasty up around Oregon County.